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--- visibility: public --- # The Academic Infrastructure of the Coherence Economy ## By Brendan Marshall Published 2025-01-15 --- The coherence economy centers on technology optimizing internal alignment rather than external engagement. This approach didn't originate from corporate R&D labs but from academic groups tackling a foundational challenge: measuring what occurs within individuals using messy, real-world data. Marshall mapped over 100 labs across affective computing, mobile sensing, behavioral science, sleep research, social dynamics, and human-computer interaction. These institutions form the scientific foundation for coherence-based systems. Coherence refers to "internal alignment across physiology, attention, emotion, and behavior such that actions reflect intent rather than compulsion." Operationally, it manifests as reduced internal conflict and consistency between stated intentions and observed behavior during stress. This definition is measurable, probabilistically modeled, and only optimizable when users prioritize it. ## How to Use This Map **For founders:** This map identifies proven wedges versus research-stage approaches. Narrow constructs with validated ground truth commercialize more readily. General state inference mostly remains research-grade except in constrained environments. Select tractable targets, partner with labs publishing validation studies, and avoid claiming more than your interpretation layer supports. **For investors:** The six traditions present different risk profiles. Measurement companies face commoditization as sensors become cheaper. Interpretation companies confront accuracy and liability questions. Influence companies encounter ethics and consent scrutiny. Diligence should examine ground truth quality, personalization requirements, and whether claims exceed validation. **For researchers:** Successful translation paths share common characteristics. "Picard, Patel, and Pentland all founded companies around specific, defensible inference problems, not general platforms." Open-source tools dominate research infrastructure. Commercial success required proprietary interpretation or novel sensing modalities. ## The Coherence Stack Three layers structure these labs, each with boundary tests: **Measurement:** Raw signals captured via PPG, accelerometer, audio, screen events, GPS, skin conductance. If you cannot name the sensor and its direct capture, you're not in measurement. Sampling rate and preprocessing determine quality. **Interpretation:** Probabilistic claims about latent states with explicit uncertainty. This combines "probabilistic inference plus context plus calibration." Causality represents the challenging mode. Good interpretation surfaces confidence, context features, and known failure modes—resembling forecasts rather than verdicts. If claims would change with additional context, interpretation is needed. Asserting causality requires experimental validation. **Influence:** Interventions delivered through reflection, suggestion, adaptation, automation. If your product changes behavior, you're in influence, regardless of terminology. ## Validation Ladder Claims vary widely in rigor across this hierarchy: 1. Face validity and user self-report alignment 2. Correlation to validated instruments 3. Longitudinal stability within individuals 4. Generalization across cohorts and contexts 5. Intervention effects demonstrated in trials or natural experiments Most commercial products operate at levels one and two. Levels four and five remain rare outside clinical settings. ## Quick Index - **Affective computing:** Rich signals, messy labels, context required - **Ubiquitous sensing:** Feasible capture, meaning elusive, severe cold-start challenges - **Behavior design:** Effective interventions, ethics drift risks, requires upstream truth - **Sleep and psychophysiology:** Validated constructs, wearables remain error-prone - **Social dynamics:** High value, high power asymmetry, governance essential - **HCI:** Delivery layer, can mask weak inference, must show uncertainty ## Affective Computing **What they measure:** Facial expressions, vocal prosody, skin conductance, heart rate variability, and other physiological signals. Two approaches differ: emotion classification assigns discrete labels (anger, joy, fear), while affect dimensions model continuous variables (arousal, valence). Most commercial systems use dimensions for robustness, though marketing often implies discrete recognition. **What they proved:** "Affect leaks through the body." Rosalind Picard's MIT Affective Computing Group established that multimodal signals detect arousal and valence under controlled conditions. Hatice Gunes' Cambridge AFAR Lab extended detection into naturalistic environments. Datasets they created became machine learning training grounds, though label quality remains problematic. Self-report, observer ratings, and physiological proxies frequently disagree. **What got commercialized:** Success followed narrow targets with clear buyers. Affectiva focused on automotive safety (driver monitoring) and advertising (audience response), selling to automakers and agencies. Empatica concentrated on seizure detection, serving clinicians and caregivers. Both had external, observable ground truth: a driver looked away; a seizure occurred. "Commercial affect succeeds when ground truth is external and observable, not internal and self-interpreted." General emotion AI without specific use cases remained research-grade. **Stack position:** Primarily Measurement, with partial Interpretation for specific constructs. **Unsolved constraint:** The affective ambiguity problem. Identical physiological signals mean different things contextually. Without rich situational data, inference fails. Label disagreement compounds problems. Affective models perform best paired with context sensors and user baseline calibration. ## Ubiquitous Sensing **What they measure:** Behavioral and contextual signals captured passively via smartphones, wearables, ambient sensors—movement patterns, app usage, location, sleep proxies, social interaction frequency. **What they proved:** Collection at scale is feasible. Shwetak Patel's UbiComp Lab at University of Washington and Tanzeem Choudhury's People-Aware Computing Lab at Cornell demonstrated continuous capture of health-relevant signals through phones and wearables. StudentLife study showed correlations between passive data and mental health outcomes. However, inference at scale remains unsolved. Correlations don't reliably generalize across individuals. **What got commercialized:** Commercial wins derived from single-variable inference with clear ROI. "Patel's exits (Zensi to Belkin, SNUPI to Sears, Senosis to Google) each solved one well-defined problem: energy disaggregation, leak detection, specific biomarker screening." Choudhury's HealthRhythms targeted mental health monitoring for clinical populations, not general wellness. Narrowness made these companies viable. **Stack position:** Strong Measurement of behavioral and contextual signals. Context is where coherence companies should start, not emotion labels. **Unsolved constraint:** The cold-start problem is severe. Personalization requires longitudinal data, which requires sustained engagement, which requires value delivery before calibration completes. Successful products deliver immediate value from measurement alone, then unlock personalization as data accumulates. ## Behavior Design **What they measure:** These labs rarely generate new sensing modalities. They optimize interventions and measure behavioral outcomes: adherence, engagement, symptom reduction, habit formation. **What they proved:** Behavior change follows predictable patterns. B.J. Fogg's Stanford Behavior Design Lab produced the Fogg Behavior Model, foundational for consumer product growth. David Mohr's Northwestern Center for Behavioral Intervention Technologies developed IntelliCare, evidence-based depression and anxiety apps with published clinical trials. Susan Michie's UCL Centre created the Behavior Change Technique Taxonomy, classifying 93 intervention mechanisms. **What got commercialized:** Validated intervention protocols licensed to digital health companies. Mohr's IntelliCare became Adaptive Health. Kevin Volpp's Penn CHIBE spun out VAL Health for enterprise behavioral economics consulting. Buyers were health systems or employers seeking evidence-based programs. **Stack position:** Primarily Influence. These labs specialize in implementation once information is established. **Unsolved constraint:** Behavior design assumes sensing and interpretation are solved upstream. "The same mechanisms can be used for agency or addiction." Coherence products must choose sides. If incentives reward time spent rather than intent achieved, products drift toward compulsion. ## Sleep and Psychophysiology **What they measure:** Sleep architecture, heart rate variability, autonomic nervous system function, emotion regulation through validated physiological protocols. **What they proved:** Some internal states have clear biological signatures with established ground truth. Matthew Walker's Berkeley Center for Human Sleep Science works with polysomnography-validated constructs. James Gross' Stanford Psychophysiology Laboratory developed emotion regulation process models with measurable physiological correlates. HeartMath Research Center built an HRV biofeedback ecosystem, though some literature claims remain disputed. **What got commercialized:** Clinical-grade validation translated to consumer or enterprise products. Walker co-founded Somnee for sleep enhancement. Ki Chon's lab spun out Mobile Sense Technologies for cardiac monitoring. Tractability proved critical: sleep stages and arrhythmias have clear definitions. Mood and stress don't. **Stack position:** Deep Measurement with validated Interpretation for specific clinical constructs. **Unsolved constraint:** Success requires tractable targets. Consumer wearables often infer sleep stages with meaningful error relative to polysomnography. The construct is tractable, but measurement pipelines matter. For coherence systems, start with constructs having clear physiological grounding and validated measurement protocols before higher-order inference attempts. ## Social Dynamics **What they measure:** Voice patterns, physical proximity, interaction frequency, turn-taking, other interpersonal behavior signals. **What they proved:** Unconscious behavioral cues predict group outcomes. Sandy Pentland's MIT Human Dynamics Lab showed that "tone of voice, movement patterns, and interaction dynamics predict team performance and negotiation outcomes." His "honest signals" framework became the theoretical basis for workplace sensing. **What got commercialized:** Pentland's lab produced three major companies: Cogito (voice coaching for contact centers, acquired by Verint), Humanyze (workplace analytics), Ginger (on-demand mental health, merged with Headspace). Each case involved organizational effectiveness, not individual monitoring. Buyers were enterprise HR or operations. Framing mattered: companies positioned as "employee surveillance" struggled to scale and faced adoption barriers. Those positioned as "team effectiveness" or "customer experience" found traction. **Stack position:** Measurement of the Relationships domain with emerging Interpretation. **Unsolved constraint:** Relationship sensing involves asymmetric power risks. Consent isn't a checkbox when employers are involved. "Interpretation mistakes can become managerial weapons." This area faces strong norms even without legal regulation. On-device inference and minimal raw data retention matter here. Enterprise products should assume adversarial use cases and design accordingly. Coherence companies in the Relationships domain need "governance architectures that prevent misuse by design, not policy." ## Human-Computer Interaction **What they measure:** User behavior, input patterns, gaze, gesture, interaction quality. **What they proved:** The system-user interface can expand radically. Carnegie Mellon's HCII produced multiple spinouts from Chris Harrison's Future Interfaces Group. Ehsan Hoque's Rochester HCI Lab built real-time communication coaching systems. **What got commercialized:** Novel input modalities or real-time feedback loops. Harrison's Qeexo (acquired by TDK) focused on touch intelligence for device manufacturers. Hoque's Yoodli focused on speech coaching for professionals. Buyers were enterprises seeking training tools or device OEMs seeking differentiation. **Stack position:** Primarily Influence. These labs excel at final implementation. **Unsolved constraint:** HCI labs depend on other layers for signals. "A polished UX can make weak interpretation feel persuasive, which is a coherence risk." Good coherence UX makes uncertainty legible rather than hiding it. Show confidence bands, show what data was used, show what would change recommendations. ## Why Interpretation Is the Bottleneck Across all six traditions, the same asymmetry emerges. Measurement keeps getting cheaper, smaller, more continuous. "Interpretation remains brittle." **Context-dependence:** The same signal means different things depending on situation, time of day, recent history. Elevated heart rate during a meeting could indicate engagement, anxiety, or recent stair climbing. Without rich contextual data, inference fails. **Baseline variance:** People differ widely in physiological and behavioral signatures. Population-level models mislead individuals. Personalization requires longitudinal data, which requires sustained engagement, which requires value delivery before calibration completes. **Causality:** Correlation masquerades as insight. Observing pattern correlations with outcomes doesn't establish causation. Causal claims require experimental designs most sensing systems cannot support. ## What the Landscape Reveals Commercial successes cluster where targets are narrow and ground truth clearer: seizure detection, arrhythmia screening, sleep staging, communication coaching. Full-stack coherence systems closing the sensing-to-inference-to-action loop remain rare, because "interpretation is where uncertainty lives." Visible white spaces include: 1. **Interpretation layer companies** that reliably contextualize physiological and behavioral signals 2. **Longitudinal personalization systems** improving with individual data over time 3. **Integration plays** connecting measurement across traditions without surveillance collapse The academic infrastructure exists. Abundant sensors and cheap continuous capture are available. "What we do not have is reliable meaning at the individual level." ## If You Are Building in This Space - **Pick a tractable construct with ground truth.** External and observable beats internal and self-interpreted. Seizure, arrhythmia, sleep stage, communication pattern. Not mood, not wellness, not coherence itself until validation and calibration exist. - **Design for calibration and cold start from day one.** Your product must deliver value before personalization activates. It must improve as individual data accumulates. Without explaining both phases, you lack a product. - **Make uncertainty and consent visible in the product.** Hiding confidence levels builds "score theater." Checkbox consent workflows lose trust when needed. Governance is a feature, not a constraint. ## Scope and Limits This map reflects approximately 100 labs selected for coherence-technology relevance, not a comprehensive census. The six traditions organize the landscape; they're not absolute truth. Some labs span multiple traditions; some important work doesn't fit neatly. The focus is commercialization paths, not scientific contribution. "Labs that have stayed academic may be doing work that matters more in the long run." Commercial success signals feasibility, not importance. Marshall indicated the map would be updated as omissions, new labs, and better categorizations emerge.